Relationship between prevalence of Kashin-Beck disease and ecological environment in Gansu Province

Abstract

Objective To explore the relationship between prevalence of Kashin-Beck disease(KBD) and ecological environment, and to broaden the perspective of KBD etiology. Methods In 37 counties of KBD areas in Gansu Province, information about the ecological environment and implementation situation of control measures (altitude, temperature, rainfall, evaporation, frost free period, annual sunshine hours, population density, per capita income, the proportion of staple food, returning farmland to forest, to forestry and replant crops) and X-ray detection rate of KBD of 7-12-year-old children in 2012-2014 was collected. Using four quantile regression method, the regression model was introduced to analyze the 11 ecological factors which related to the pathogenesis of KBD. The effect of three points on X-ray detection rate of KBD was estimated. Results The X-ray detection rate of KBD was independent of altitude, temperature, evaporation, population density, per capita income and cash crops, and was dependent of rainfall, frost free period, annual sunshine hours, the staple food purchase ratio, and returning farmland to forest and grassland. No matter where in any place numbered, the higher rainfall (measure value: 0.003 3 to 0.006 4), the longer frost free period (measure value: 0.029 2 to 0.043 8), the longer annual sunshine hours (measure value: 0.001 6 to 0.001 8), and the higher staple food purchase ratio (measure value: 0.019 7 to 0.027 6), the higher risk of X-ray detection rate of KBD; the higher returning farmland to forest and to grassland, the lower risk of X-ray detection rate of KBD (measure value:-0.037 2 to-0.013 3). Conclusion The X-ray detection rate of KBD is closely related to local ecological environment. Key words: Kashin-Beck disease; X-ray; Detection rate; Ecological environment; Influence factor