Relationship between Prediction Skill of Surface Winds in Average of Weeks 1–4 and Interannual Variability over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean

Abstract

AbstractThis study examines the possible relationship between predictions of weekly and biweekly averages of 10-m winds at 3-week lead time and interannual variability over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean (WP-IO) using Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecasts for period 1979–2008. There is a large temporal correlation between forecasts and reanalyses for zonal, meridional, and total wind magnitudes at 10 m over most of WP-IO for the average of weeks 1 and 2 (W1 and W2) in reforecasts initialized in January (JIR) and May (MIR). The model has some correlations that exceed 95% confidence in some portions of WP-IO in week 3 (W3) but no skill in week 4 (W4) over most of the region. The model depicts prediction skill in the 14-day average of weeks 3–4 (W3–4) over portions of WP-IO, similar to the level of skill in W3. The amplitude of interannual variability (IAV) for 10-m winds in W1 of JIR and MIR is close to that in reanalyses. As lead time increases, the amplitude of IAV of 10-m winds gradually decreases over WP-IO in reforecasts, in contrast to behavior in reanalyses. The amplitude of IAV of predicted 10-m winds in W3–4 over WP-IO is equivalent to that in W3 and W4 in reforecasts. In contrast, the amplitude of IAV in W3–4 in January and May of the reanalysis is much smaller than IAV of W3 and W4. Therefore, one of the possible causes for prediction skill in W3–4 over subregions of WP-IO is due to a reduction of IAV bias in W3–4 in comparison to IAV bias in W3 and W4.