Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction

Abstract

AbstractBy superimposing initial sea temperature disturbances in neutral years, we determine the precursory disturbances that are most likely to evolve into El Niño and La Niña events using an Earth System Model. These precursory disturbances for El Niño and La Niña events are deemed optimal precursory disturbances because they are more likely to trigger strong ENSO events. Specifically, the optimal precursory disturbance for El Niño exhibits negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. Additionally, the subsurface temperature component exhibits negative anomalies in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific and positive anomalies in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The optimal precursory disturbance for La Niña is almost opposite to that of El Niño. The optimal precursory disturbances show that both El Niño and La Niña originate from precursory signals in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and in the surface layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific. We find that the optimal precursory disturbances for El Niño and La Niña are particularly similar to the optimally growing initial errors associated with El Niño prediction that have been presented in previous studies. The optimally growing initial errors show that the optimal precursor source areas represent the sensitive areas for target observations associated with ENSO prediction. Combining the optimal precursory disturbances and the optimally growing initial errors for ENSO, we infer that additional observations in these sensitive areas can reduce initial errors and be used to detect precursory signals, thereby improving ENSO predictions.