Abstract
Obesity represents a major risk factor for population health. No studies have evaluated how economic expansion impacts the prevalence of obesity. The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between national economic development and body mass index (BMI) in Chinese children and adolescents. Data of mean BMI in children and adolescents aged 5–19 from 1986 to 2019 were extracted from an international database of cardiometabolic risk factors. Chinese economic development was quantified by the gross domestic product (GDP), which was extracted from the International Monetary Fund. The relationships between GDP and BMI were assessed in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. In addition, the linear regression from the main data and estimated GDP growth allowed the projections of mean BMI for each age group between 2020 and 2025. The results suggest there was a linear increase in BMI over years, which means that there has been a steady increase in BMI over the economic expansion. Overall, 97% of the variance (Pearson correlation coefficient) of BMI in boys can be explained by the GDP expansion, and the same pattern (98% of the variance) occurred in girls. Projected mean BMI were provided for constructing future national strategies to prevent overweight and obesity in youth. In conclusion, BMI in children and adolescents aged 5–19 trended upwards between 1986 and 2019. Our analyses for the first time suggest that globalization has a major impact on BMI in China. Economic expansion was highly predictive of BMI increases.
Highlights
Obesity has emerged a global health problem and posed health risks to the world’s population of all ages
While the total sample sizes for country specific data are not available, body mass index (BMI) data collected by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration currently consist of 2,181 population-based studies with 65 million participants, which is considered to be the most comprehensive international scientific endeavor documenting trend change in BMI
Linear regression revealed that gross domestic product (GDP) expansion was associated with increased BMI in children and adolescents over the time
Summary
Obesity has emerged a global health problem and posed health risks to the world’s population of all ages. In 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults aged 18 years and over were overweight, whereas over 340 million children and adolescents aged 5–19 were overweight or obese [1]. Data have shown that 38 million children worldwide under the age of 5 were overweight or obese in 2019 [1]. The prevalence of overweight and obesity in childhood is Chinese GDP and BMI high and continues to increase globally [2,3,4,5], generating an increasing health risk. Population data show that prevalence of overweight continually increased from 1.1% in 1985 to 20.4% in 2014 in Chinese schoolaged children [7], making childhood obesity a critical health issue in China
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