Abstract
In this study, the relationships between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained based on MODIS satellite data and grain yield of all cereals, wheat and barley at a country level were analyzed. The analysis was performed by using data from 2010–2018 for 20 European countries, where percentage of cereals is high (at least 35% of the arable land). The analysis was performed for each country separately and for all of the collected data together. The relationships between NDVI and cumulative NDVI (cNDVI) were analyzed by using linear regression. Relationships between NDVI in early spring and grain yield of cereals were very strong for Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia. This means that the yield prediction for these countries can be as far back as 4 months before the harvest. The increase of NDVI in early spring was related to the increase of grain yield by about 0.5–1.6 t/ha. The cumulative of averaged NDVI gives more stable prediction of grain yield per season. For France and Belgium, the relationships between NDVI and grain yield were very weak.
Highlights
Introduction for Selected European CountriesThe most important crops in European Union (EU 28) agriculture are cereals because53% of the arable land is dedicated to the harvested area for all cereal species [1]
normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in early spring and grain yield of cereals were very strong for Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia. This means that the yield prediction for these countries can be as far back as 4 months before the harvest
Grain yield forecasts are based on various methods, including statistical models where meteorological data and historical yields are used for prediction [2,3,4,5]
Summary
Introduction for Selected European CountriesThe most important crops in European Union (EU 28) agriculture are cereals because53% of the arable land is dedicated to the harvested area for all cereal species [1]. The most important crops in European Union (EU 28) agriculture are cereals because. The most important crop among cereals is wheat which covers around 25% of total arable area of EU. These crops have very high importance for food protection because of the high variability of grain yields of cereals from one year to another. Grain yield forecasts are based on various methods, including statistical models where meteorological data and historical yields are used for prediction [2,3,4,5]. Multispectral data in the range of visible light and near-infrared are used for calculation of vegetation indices which are used as predictors of cereal grain yield. Thanks to the use of such methods, it was possible, in some studies, to forecast grain yield 2–3 months before the harvest
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