Abstract
Dengue is the most vital arboviral disease in humans, which is occurring in tropical and subtropical areas around the world. Dengue fever is itemized as an urban human disease as it spreads easily to urban environmental/ morphological contexts because of the uneven increase of urban population and infectious diseases as a result of climate change. Dengue epidemic cases related to climatic parameters are helpful to monitor and prevent the transmission of dengue fever. Many studies have focused on describing the clinical aspects of dengue outbreak. We bring out the epidemiological study to investigate the dengue fever development and prediction in the Karachi city. This study described the oncological treatment by statistical analysis and fractal rescaled range (R/S) method of the dengue epidemics from January 2001 to December 2020, based on the urban morphological patterns, and climatic variables including temperature and ENSO respectively. The R/S method in oncologists has been carried in two ways, basic oncological/statistical analysis and Fractal dimension adapt to the study the nature of the subtleties of dengue epidemic data, another showing the dynamics of oncological process. Climate parameters are shown that the fractal dimension value revealed a persistency behavior i.e. time series is an increasing, Fractal analysis also confirmed the anti-persistent behavior of dengue for months of September to November and the normality tests specified the robust indication of the intricacy of data. This study will be useful for future researchers working on epidemiology and urban environmental oncological fields to improve and rectify the urban infectious diseases.
Highlights
The vector-borne dengue disease is the most significant arboviral disease in the world, according to morbidity and mortality, which estimates that fifty (50) to hundred (100) million cases and twelve thousand to twentyfour thousand deaths per year [11, 15]
Peak seasonal and total months(yearly) oncological statistical results summary are described that the skewness coefficient value for dengue and EI Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) is positive except land temperature is negative skewness, the positive skewness for dengue epidemic indicated the right skew, irregularity and deviation of the normal distribution, Kurtosis exemplify the peaked affirmed a quite smooth distribution and positive value of kurtosis confirmed a peaked distribution in exhibited in fig 1.6,we examine that the histogram for normal distribution is positive skewed to the right which is depiction of total dengue epidemic
In this study we have performed to time series study to investigate the epidemiological aspects by using mathematical oncological treatment, conclude influence of climatic variability on dengue transmission in the city of Karachi for eighteen years monthly time series data
Summary
The vector-borne dengue disease is the most significant arboviral disease in the world, according to morbidity and mortality, which estimates that fifty (50) to hundred (100) million cases and twelve thousand to twentyfour thousand deaths per year [11, 15]. Global factors around dengue viruses and Ae. Aegypti have been affected by such factors as population growth or development and unplanned areas such as slums as well as unplanned urban morphology with respect to urban climate [31]. The disease is assumed to be spread mostly as an outcome of in effectible vector and disease surveillance; insufficient human health infrastructure; population growth; unplanned and uncontrolled urban morphological structures and urban climate variation. The spread of dengue fever and expansion can help connect among urban morphology, climate and public health [39]. The vectorborne dengue diseases (VBDDs) epidemics and spreading in urban population is apparently multi-factorial, about the biological, metrological and social factors for climate change is long since smeared as significant in figure 1.1
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