Abstract
Climate and environmental change is a well-known factor causing bronchial asthma in children. After the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), climate and environmental changes have occurred. The present study investigated the relationship between climate changes (meteorological and environmental factors) and the number of hospitalizations for pediatric bronchial asthma in Suzhou before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2017 to 2021, data on daily inpatients diagnosed with bronchial asthma at Children's Hospital of Soochow University were collected. Suzhou Meteorological and Environmental Protection Bureau provided daily meteorological and environmental data. To assess the relationship between bronchial asthma-related hospitalizations and meteorological and environmental factors, partial correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were used. To estimate the effects of meteorological and environmental variables on the development of bronchial asthma in children, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used. After the COVID-19 outbreak, both the rate of acute exacerbation of bronchial asthma and the infection rate of pathogenic respiratory syncytial virus decreased, whereas the proportion of school-aged children and the infection rate of human rhinovirus increased. After the pandemic, the incidence of an acute asthma attack was negatively correlated with monthly mean temperature and positively correlated with PM2.5. Stepwise regression analysis showed that monthly mean temperature and O3 were independent covariates (risk factors) for the rate of acute asthma exacerbations. The ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 0, 0) 12 model can be used to predict temperature changes associated with bronchial asthma. Meteorological and environmental factors are related to bronchial asthma development in children. The influence of meteorological and environmental factors on bronchial asthma may be helpful in predicting the incidence and attack rates.
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