Relationship between human plague epidemic and meteorological factors in China

Abstract

Objective To explore the relationship between human plague epidemic and meteorological factors,and to provide a reference for risk assessment of the plague.Methods Human plague incidence data were from the part provinces (districts) reported data in China,and meteorological data were from the annual value database of Chinese Ground International Exchange Station of China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System.The meteorological data (temperature and humidity) and the human plague incidence data of Rattus flavipectus plague foci and plague natural focus of Marmota himalayana plateau foci were sorted out,and inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW) and zonal statistics were applied to obtain the district average value of climate data;panel data regression was analyzed by Stata 12.0 software; the effect of temperature and humidity on plague incidence this year or 1-4 years ahead was statistically analyzed.Results Regression analysis of epidemic data and meteorological factors panel data of Rattus flavipectus plague foei in 33 counties of Yunnan,Guangxi,Guizhou showed that human epidemic and extreme maximum temperature were negatively related(r =-0.022 9,P ＜ 0.05),average relative humidity of this year were positively correlated (r =0.083 0,P ＜ 0.05),extreme minimum temperature of 1 year before(r =-0.019 6,P ＜ 0.01) were negatively related,extreme maximum temperature of 1 year before(r =-0.019 0,P ＜ 0.05) were negatively correlated,minimum relative humidity of 2 years before (r =-0.107 2,P ＜ 0.01) were negatively correlated,average maximum temperature of 3 years before (r =-0.118 6,P ＜ 0.01) were negative correlated,meteorological factors of 4 years ahead(all P ＞ 0.05) were not correlated.Regression analysis of the epidemic data and meteorological factors panel data of Marmota himalaryana plague foci in 21 counties of Gansu,Qinghai,Sichuan showed that human plague epidemic and meteorological data were not correlated(all P＞ 0.05).Conclusions Human plague epidemic of Rattusflavipectus plague foci and meteorological factors are closely related; human plague epidemic can be inhibited when the temperature is too high or too low;humidity is a promoting factor,and meteorological factors need to be included in the index system of Rattus flavipectus plague foci risk assessment. Key words: Plague; Epidemic; Temperature; Humidity; Panel data