Relationship between financial inclusion, monetary policy and financial stability: An analysis in high financial development and low financial development countries

Abstract

This article studies the linkage between financial inclusion, monetary policy and financial stability in 58 countries including 31 high financial development countries (HFDCs) and 27 low financial development countries (LFDCs) from 2004 to 2020 using the PVAR method. Results of impulse – response function suggest that in LFDCs, while financial inclusion and financial stability are positively correlated, they are negatively correlated with the inflation rate and the money supply growth rate. In HFDCs, financial inclusion is positively corelated with inflation rate and money supply growth rate, while financial stability is negatively correlated with financial inclusion, inflation rate and money supply growth rate. These findings imply that in LFDCs, financial inclusion increases financial stability and reduces inflation. In HFDCs, on the contrary, financial inclusion increases financial instability, leading to long-term inflation. The results of the variance decomposition confirm the above outcomes, specifically, this relationship is clearer in HFDCs. From the above findings, we propose some policy recommendations on financial inclusion and monetary policy for financial stability for each group of countries.