Abstract
Environmental radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident has aroused great concern regarding a possible increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer. The ultrasound examinations were conducted immediately after the accident as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS), which is divided into the preliminary baseline survey (PBLS) and the full-scale survey (FSS). Some of their outcomes are reported regularly and made available to the public. We have detailed measurements of the air-dose rates and radioactive elements in soil in many places all over the Fukushima prefecture. To study the dose-response relationship, we begin with the assumption that the external and internal doses are correlated with the air-dose rate and the amount of 131I in soil, respectively. We then investigate the relationship between these estimated doses and the PBLS and FSS thyroid cancer cases. Our analysis shows that the dose-response curve with the FSS data clearly differs from that with the PBLS data. Finally, we consider the potential mitigating effects of evacuation from highly contaminated areas in both external and internal exposure scenarios.
Highlights
Environmental radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident has aroused great concern regarding a possible increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer
We studied the thyroid cancer cases in Fukushima after the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in March, 2011
There were two thyroid gland surveys – the preliminary baseline survey (PBLS) and the full-scale survey (FSS) – both using ultrasonography to screen children at the age of 18 and below who were present in Fukushima at the time of the accident
Summary
The TUE program in Fukushima began on October 9, 2011 with the aim of screening children at the age of 18 and below who lived in or visited the prefecture at the time of the nuclear reactor accident. To give priority to those presumably at the highest risk, the prefecture was divided into three zones with different air-dose rates, and the survey began with the most contaminated areas and moved to those with lower doses. The reexaminations of those diagnosed with some thyroid anomaly took place during the period starting from July 2013 until March 31, 2016. We do not include the data from the third survey
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