Relationship between economic development and road traffic crashes and casualties: empirical evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

Road traffic crash is a major public health problem in Nigeria. Economic development influence road safety but few studies have assessed both the short- and long-run relation between economic performance and road safety. This paper examined the relationship between economic development and road traffic crashes, fatalities and injuries in Nigeria. Using data over a period of 26 years (1991-2016), ARDL approach to cointegration was applied to determine the short- and long-run effects of economic development on road safety. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to gross domestic product per capita (GDP) and unemployment rate – for the level of economic development, and number of road traffic crashes, fatalities, and injuries –indicators of road safety. Results showed that in the long-run, both crashes and fatalities decrease while injuries increase with GDP. In the short-run, fatalities decrease with GDP but the negative impact of GDP on injuries manifests after a three year time lag. GDP had a significant effect on crashes, fatalities and injuries in the long run. However, GDP only significantly influenced fatalities and injuries in the short run. Government, policymakers, road safety agencies, motorists and motorcyclists should invest in road infrastructure, enforcement of traffic regulations and safety measures that will reduce injuries.