Relationship Between Arterial Stiffness and Cardiovascular Risk Scores Predicted by 2 Different Models

Abstract

Abstract Background To investigate the relationship between arterial stiffness and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk predicted by models of pooled cohort equations (PCEs) or ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR). Methods A cross-sectional clinical study was carried out, in which clinical data were collected from 1,090 subjects aged 30–75 years who were admitted to a university affiliated hospital from 2016 to 2018. Arterial stiffness was examined by carotid–femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV). All subjects were divided into 2 groups: normal arterial stiffness (cfPWV <10 m/second) and elevated arterial stiffness (cfPWV ≥10 m/second). Ten-year ASCVD risk was predicted by either PCE or China-PAR. Results ASCVD risks predicted by 2 models in the elevated arterial stiffness group were higher than those in the normal arterial stiffness group [PCE: 16.5% (8.6%–28.3%) vs. 6.3% (2.7%–12.3%); China-PAR: 8.8% (6.1%–12.4%) vs. 3.9% (2.1%–6.6%), both P < 0.001]. The correlation coefficient between cfPWV and ASCVD risk predicted by China-PAR was greater than that by PCE (0.573 vs. 0.503, z = 5.272, P < 0.001). Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that 10-year ASCVD risk predicted by PCE model (β = 0.475, P < 0.001) and waist circumference (β = 0.092, P = 0.001) correlated with cfPWV. However, when PCE was replaced by China-PAR, only ASCVD risk (β = 0.573, P < 0.001), not waist circumference, was associated with arterial stiffness. Receiver operation characteristic curve showed that the discrimination of 10-year ASCVD risk predicted by China-PAR for arterial stiffness was better than PCE (area under curve 0.814 vs. 0.767, z = 4.992, P < 0.001). A stratification analysis revealed that the better discrimination by China-PAR mainly came from males. Conclusions Ten-year ASCVD risks predicted by either China-PAR or PCE are associated with arterial stiffness. The association is stronger when the risk is predicted by China-PAR, especially in males.