Relationship among adult body length, abundance, and ocean temperature for British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), 1967–1997

Abstract

Body length of adult Pacific sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) has decreased significantly in recent years. We used 69 time series of age-specific body-length data (1967-1997) for 30 sockeye salmon stocks from southern British Columbia to western Alaska to test hypotheses about the effects of oceanographic conditions and competition on growth rate of sockeye salmon. Using principal components analysis (PCA), we constructed a single time series (PC1) that represented the dominant pattern of variability in length-at-age shared among these stocks. Taking into account time trends and autocorrelation in residuals, we found that increases in total Gulf of Alaska sockeye abundance and increases in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the Gulf of Alaska were significantly associated with reduced adult body length. Abundance and SST together accounted for 71% of the variability in PC1. Although researchers have documented increases in both abundance of sockeye salmon and their food in the northeastern Pacific Ocean over the last few decades, it is possible that increased food was more than offset by increased sockeye abundance, leading to greater competition and reduced body size.