Abstract
One of the important consequences of the climatic changes is the potential danger of increasing the concentrations of some pollutants, which may cause damages to humans, animals and plants. Therefore, it is worthwhile to study carefully the impact of future climate changes on the high pollution levels. The major topic of the discussion in this paper is the increase of some ozone levels in Bulgaria, but several related topics are also discussed. The particular mathematical tool applied in this study is a large-scale air pollution model, the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI- DEM), which was successfully used in several investigations related to potentially dangerous pollution levels in several European countries. This model is described by a non-linear system of partial differential equations, which is solved numerically by using (a) advanced numerical algorithms and (b) modern computer architectures. Moreover, (c) the code is parallelized and (d) the cache memories of the available computers are efficiently utilized. It is shown that in Bulgaria, as in the other European countries, the climatic changes will result in permanent increases of some quantities related to the ozone pollution. The important issue is that in our study the changes of the dangerous pollution levels are followed year by year. In this way, an attempt is made both to capture the effect of the interannual variations of the meteorological conditions on the levels of the ozone concentrations and to follow directly the influence of the climatic changes on the pollution levels. Moreover, the sensitivity of the pollution levels to variations of the human made (anthropogenic) and natural (biogenic) emissions is also discussed.
Highlights
Changes in climate variability and extreme weather and climate events in the end of 20th century and in the beginning of the 21st century have been discussed in many recent scientific publications
The area of interest is Bulgaria and the major topics discussed in it are (a) the influence of the climate changes on the pollution levels in the selected area, (b) the changes of the pollution levels that are due to a combination of the warming effect with some other important factors and (c) the contribution of air pollution transported from other European countries to the ozone levels in Bulgaria
The results presented in this paper indicate very clearly that the climatic changes will increase the pollution levels related to ozone in Bulgaria
Summary
Changes in climate variability and extreme weather and climate events in the end of 20th century and in the beginning of the 21st century have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. There are two major reasons, which lead to an increase of the pollution levels: (1) many of the chemical reactions depend on the temperature and (2) the relative parts of the biogenic emissions are becoming bigger when the temperature is higher. This is why the global warming will lead in the most of the cases to an increase of the dangerous effects of the high concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere on humans, animals and plants.
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