Relation between southern oscillation index and Indian northeast monsoon as revealed in antecedent and concurrent modes

Abstract

The relation between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Indian northeast monsoon has been studied in antecedent and concurrent modes based on monthly /seasonal mean SOI and monthly/seasonal rainfall data of Tamil Nadu for the 104 year period, 1901 to 2004. It has been found that a good negative relationship exists between the SOI and Indian northeast monsoon in antecedent and concurrent modes, the former being stronger than the later. In the concurrent mode, a strong negative relationship exists during the beginning of the season which changes as the season advances and turns positive during the fag end of the season. Such a changing nature of relationship is explained through the variation of latitudinal positions of 200 hPa Sub Tropical Ridge (STR) / Equatorial Trough (ET) and the location of these with reference to the latitudinal location of the area benefited by the northeast monsoon. It has been shown that a positive (negative) SOI shifts the STR north(south)wards throughout the year. The relationship between latitudinal position of STR and the Indian northeast monsoon rainfall (NMR) is negative during the beginning of the season and turns positive during the fag end of the season, which is similar to the relationship between SOI and NMR. The relation between upper tropospheric wind/temperature anomalies and NMR also shows a similar change in relationship. Westerly wind and negative temperature anomalies in October changing to easterly wind and positive temperature anomalies in January are by and large associated with good northeast monsoon activity. The reversal in the relationship between latitudinal position of STR and NMR as the season advances has also been partly explained based on theoretical considerations by invoking the tilting term of the vorticity equation. Thus the SOI appears to manifest itself on Indian northeast monsoon rainfall by way of modulating the latitudinal positions of STR. An analysis based on Australian “Rainman” software on winter monsoon rainfall of some Sri Lankan and southeast Asian stations has substantiated the changing nature of relationship. A study of dates of onset and withdrawal of Indian northeast monsoon in relation to SOI has revealed that negative (positive) SOI in September is associated with early (late) onset. But, continuation of negative SOI throughout the season favours early and abrupt withdrawal. Positive SOI during the fag end of the season is frequently associated with extension of the monsoon into January of the next year.