Relation between Short-Term and Long-Term Variations of Precipitation

Klemens Hocke

doi:10.3390/cli5040096

Abstract

It is often stated that short-term precipitation of synoptical weather is related to trends or interannual variations of precipitation. We analyzed nine long-term series of daily precipitation values of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D V2.0). Generally, the mean amplitude of short-term variations increases (decreases) if there is a positive (negative) interannual anomaly of precipitation, respectively. In all cases, the amplitude of the short-term variations (periods < 10 days) clearly correlates with the long-term variations (periods > 1.5 years) of precipitation. The correlation coefficient is between 0.7 and 0.95 at periods <8 days. For Kukuihaele (Hawaii), the correlation maximizes at a period of about 14 days. In the other cases, the maximum of the correlation is reached at periods <5 days.

Highlights

Latif [1] explained that the simulation and prediction of mesoscale systems, synoptical scale disturbances, intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variations are intimately linked
It would be valuable for climate change research if one can surely state that a long-term increase of precipitation is accompanied by an increase of short-term variations of precipitation
Our study investigates the relationship between short-term precipitation of synoptical weather, the annual oscillation and interannual variations of precipitation

Summary

Introduction

Latif [1] explained that the simulation and prediction of mesoscale systems, synoptical scale disturbances, intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variations are intimately linked. The increase of short-term rainfall events can have its origin in long-term climate change One example for such a connection is the increase of tropical sea surface temperature due to global warming and the associated increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical hurricanes. It would be valuable for climate change research if one can surely state that a long-term increase of precipitation is accompanied by an increase of short-term variations of precipitation. The sub-monthly-scale ISOs are closely associated with the north-south shift of the monsoon trough They found that the activity of high-frequency variations (3–6 days) has little relationship with the IAV of the intraseasonal variance and total summer monsoon rainfall.

Precipitation Measurements

Data Analysis

Results and Discussion

Conclusions