Abstract
Abstract. The potential for using high-resolution meteorological data from two operational numerical weather analyses (NWA) to diagnose and predict persistent contrail formation is evaluated using two independent contrail observation databases. Contrail occurrence statistics derived from surface and satellite observations between April 2004 and June 2005 are matched to the humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability derived from analyses from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) models. The relationships between contrail occurrence and the NWA-derived statistics are analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions persistent contrail formation is favored within NWAs. Humidity is the most important factor determining whether contrails are short-lived or persistent, and persistent contrails are more likely to appear when vertical velocities are positive. The model-derived atmospheric stability and wind shear do not appear to have a significant effect on contrail occurrence.
Highlights
Contrail-induced cloud cover has the potential to produce significant regional effects on climate (Minnis et al, 2004)
This paper evaluates the potential for using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) models to diagnose and predict persistent contrail formation conditions using a variety of datasets
Some of the cases where observers reported contrail coverage not seen in the satellite may have been due to the observation of non-spreading persistent contrails that could not be detected in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery loops
Summary
Contrail-induced cloud cover has the potential to produce significant regional effects on climate (Minnis et al, 2004). The possibility for globally significant impacts rises. The basic thermodynamics of contrail formation from jet exhaust was described by Schmidt/Appleman theory (Schumann, 1996), which has been modified more recently to account for the effects of jet aircraft efficiency. This theory describes the temperature and pressure conditions necessary to allow the isobaric mixing of the hot, moist exhaust gases with the cold ambient air to form a contrail.
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