Reinvestigating the Nature of Persistence of Shocks in the Macroeconomic Variables Relating to the Indian Economy with Special Reference to Structural Changes and Seasonality

Abstract

Over the last two decades, there is a substantial debate on the persistence of shocks, in terms of their transitory and permanent nature, caused to the macroeconomic aggregates. Macroeconomic variables with transitory shocks will revert back to the long-run deterministic path eventually, whereas variables with permanent shocks will move according to random walk having no fixed predetermined path. These two series known as Trend Stationary (TS) and Difference Stationary (DS), respectively, have their significance in the specification of the regression equation and testing competing economic theories. Consequently there are a good amount of studies to classify the macroeconomic aggregates as TS vs. DS. In this context, relatively new developments of seasonal integration and presence of structural breaks in the macro variables has aroused a need to reinvestigate these hypotheses afresh. This paper makes an attempt to examine some of these issues by making use of the Indian data.