Abstract
Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued.
Highlights
We are experiencing anthropocene defaunation [1], which implies massive biodiversity extinction during the last century and declines of current wildlife population abundance [2]
Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the 100 years
The obtained information supports the decision of reintroducing the guanaco in Quebrada del Condorito National Park (QCNP), some aspects of this reintroduction process, such as the release method, do not always produce the expected results in terms of survival [28]. Considering that this project is a milestone in the history of reintroduction of wild species in the national system of protected areas in Argentina, the principal objective of the present work was to evaluate the current probability of persistence of guanacos in QCNP under different future supplementation scenarios, and the secondary objective was to establish management priorities to achieve the effective recovery of the guanacos in the high mountains of central Argentina
Summary
We are experiencing anthropocene defaunation [1], which implies massive biodiversity extinction during the last century and declines of current wildlife population abundance [2]. Refaunation involves re-establishing species into areas or ecosystems where they became locally extinct [3]. Wildlife reintroduction has notably increased during the last decades [4], [5]. Reintroductions are suggested when they favour ecosystem functionality and are conducted over a long period, with emphasis on restoring natural processes rather than addressing only extinction risk [6]. Reintroductions are complex and costly processes that may fail due to a lack of knowledge on the ecology of the species in the habitats where they are reintroduced [7]. It is highly recommended that reintroduction projects include continuous monitoring [8], because the obtained information helps to make proper management decisions [9]
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