Regression Modelling of Flood Episodes in Ogbaru, Anambra State

Abstract

Flooding has caused numerous damages to lives and properties. Ogbaru local government is a riverine area that was adversely affected by flooding due to the storm surges that over-flooded the riverbanks during the flooding incidents that affected most areas in Anambra State in the past. Thus, the aim of this study is to develop a regression model for flood events in Ogbaru Wetland, Anambra State. To achieve this, data was collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency's synoptic station (NIMET) for temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and the number of major flood episodes in the area for a40-year period (1971–2010). Multiple Linear Regression was used to analyse the data. The results obtained showed the values for Multiple R, R2, adjusted R2, standard error as 0.115618399, 0.013367614, -0.068851751, 1.836772885, 0.115618399, respectively. The correlation results presented relative humidity and rainfall as 0.757133219; number of flood events and rainfall as 0.107747581; number of flood events and relative humidity as 0.085395873. ANOVA used to determine the strength of the regression. Conclusively, it was observed that flooding in the area was caused by a combination of atmospheric variables that contributed roughly 1.34 percent. Also, anthropogenic and environmental variables were responsible for 98.66% of wetland flooding.