Regression mathematical models of the number of small mammals in the Kaluga region of the Russian Federation

Abstract

An analytical review of mathematical model of the dynamics of the population of small mammals, feeders for ixodic ticks, is presented. Rodents are an essential link in the circulation of agents of numerous zoonoses, as a result, a constant natural nidality within a specific area is maintained. Small mammals also serve as host feeders for a number of hematophagous arthropods, which are natural reservoirs of causative agents of dangerous infections and invasions. Muroid rodents are the most numerous mammals that inhabit the territory of the Russian Federation. A combination of natural disease foci often occurs as a result of territorial convergence and the existence of common vectors and carriers in the same area. Tularemia can be combined with plague, pseudotuberculosis, listeriosis, leptospirosis, pasteurellosis, etc. Small mammals are also involved in the circulation of encephalitis virus, viral hemorrhagic fever, orthohantavirus, Lyme disease, toxoplasmosis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, anaplasmosis, and many other diseases affecting animals and humans. All the above mentioned diseases require continuous monitoring of the population dynamics of small mammals within a specific natural and climatic area under study. Mathematical models of the dynamics of population of small mammals make it possible to effectively forecast outbreaks of natural focal diseases without significant financial investments. An accurate forecast will provide an opportunity to be prepared and will enable a prompt response to the epizootological situation. The purpose of the study is to develop mathematical models of the population of small mammals in the Kaluga region acting as ixodid tick host feeders, therefore making it possible to estimate the probability of outbreaks of vector-borne zoonoses. The obtained mathematical models enable the risk quantification of outbreaks of vector-borne zoonoses without incurring costs associated with field study and allow to implement competent, timely and effective preventive measures.