Abstract

In regression discontinuity design (RD), for a given bandwidth, researchers can estimate standard errors based on different variance formulas obtained under different asymptotic frameworks. In the traditional approach the bandwidth shrinks to zero as sample size increases; alternatively, the bandwidth could be treated as fixed. The main theoretical results for RD rely on the former, while most applications in the literature treat the estimates as parametric, implementing the usual heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. This paper develops the alternative asymptotic theory for RD designs, which sheds light on the connection between both approaches. I provide alternative formulas (approximations) for the bias and variance of common RD estimators, and conditions under which both approximations are equivalent. Simulations document the improvements in test coverage that fixed-bandwidth approximations achieve relative to traditional approximations, especially when there is local heteroskedasticity. Feasible estimators of fixed-bandwidth standard errors are easy to implement and are akin to treating RD estimators as locally parametric, validating the common empirical practice of using heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors in RD settings. Bias mitigation approaches are discussed and a novel, bootstrap higher-order bias correction procedure based on the fixed bandwidth asymptotics is suggested.

Highlights

  • Regression discontinuity (RD) designs have been propelled to the spotlight of economic analysis in recent years,1 especially in the policy and treatment evaluation literatures, as a form of estimating treatment effects in a non-experimental setting

  • This “fixed-h” approximation provides expressions for the estimator’s asymptotic variance that incorporate the bandwidth used by the researcher, and lead naturally to the standard error formulas used in the applied literature, clarifying the assumptions behind its use

  • This paper focuses on presenting an alternative asymptotic approximation for the standard RD treatment effects estimator using a fixed bandwidth

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Summary

Introduction

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs have been propelled to the spotlight of economic analysis in recent years, especially in the policy and treatment evaluation literatures, as a form of estimating treatment effects in a non-experimental setting. I focus on presenting an alternative asymptotic approximation for the standard RD treatment effects estimator using a fixed bandwidth that relaxes the smoothness conditions imposed on σ2(x) This “fixed-h” approximation provides expressions for the estimator’s asymptotic variance that incorporate the bandwidth used by the researcher, and lead naturally to the standard error formulas used in the applied literature, clarifying the assumptions behind its use. On the context of time-series or spatial dependence, analyze and justify the use asymptotic variance formulas based on fixed-bandwidth approximations when pursuing heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation and spatial dependence robust inference (Bester et al 2016; Chen, Liao, and Sun 2014; Kim, Sun, and Yang 2017; Sun 2014). I provide an empirical application using Lee (2008), exemplifying with actual data the improvements obtained

Model and Estimator
Asymptotic Distributions
Addressing the Asymptotic Bias
Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity
Variance Estimators
Simulations
Simulations for Infeasible Inference
Simulations for Feasible Inference
Empirical Example
Conclusion
Simulations for Bias Control
Additional Results for Empirical Example
Additional Notation
Findings
Main Results
Full Text
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