Abstract
Abstract. The paper compares different approaches to regional frequency analysis with the main focus on the implementation of the region-of-influence (ROI) technique for the modelling of probabilities of heavy precipitation amounts in the area of the Western Carpathians. Unlike the conventional regional frequency analysis where the at-site design values are estimated within a fixed pooling group (region), the ROI approach as a specific alternative to focused pooling techniques makes use of flexible pooling groups, i.e. each target site has its own group of sufficiently similar sites. In this paper, various ROI pooling schemes are constructed as combinations of different alternatives of sites' similarity (pooling groups defined according to climatological characteristics and geographical proximity of sites, respectively) and pooled weighting factors. The performance of the ROI pooling schemes and statistical models of conventional (regional and at-site) frequency analysis is assessed by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies for precipitation annual maxima for the 1-day and 5-day durations in Slovakia. It is demonstrated that a) all the frequency models based on the ROI method yield estimates of growth curves that are superior to the standard regional and at-site estimates at most individual sites, and b) the selection of a suitable ROI pooling scheme should be adjusted to the dominant character of the formation of heavy precipitation.
Highlights
IntroductionInformation on design values (quantiles) of heavy one-day and multi-day precipitation is important in various fields of water resources engineering, e.g. the design of dams and sewer systems, flood prevention, protection against soil and vegetation loss, etc
Information on design values of heavy one-day and multi-day precipitation is important in various fields of water resources engineering, e.g. the design of dams and sewer systems, flood prevention, protection against soil and vegetation loss, etc
A recognized drawback of this approach is related to the estimation of rare events, i.e. in practice, one often needs design values corresponding to return periods (T ) that are much larger than the lengths of the available series of observations (n)
Summary
Information on design values (quantiles) of heavy one-day and multi-day precipitation is important in various fields of water resources engineering, e.g. the design of dams and sewer systems, flood prevention, protection against soil and vegetation loss, etc. With a traditional at-site approach to frequency analysis, the precipitation quantiles have long been estimated using a data sample at the site of interest only. In order to overcome the lack of at-site observations, a regional approach to a frequency analysis that “traded space for time” was developed in the 1960s (Dalrymple, 1960) for the estimation of design floods. This approach, based on the index-flood method, has gained wider popularity since the 1980s
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