REGIONALIZATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLESAND AS A NECESSARY ELEMENT OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THE MODEL

Abstract

The main problems of constructing models used to develop of spatial and sectoral long-term economic forecasts are due to the lack of direct statistical data in full, i.e. regional tables of distribution of goods and services. Their calculation has to be carried out on the basis of a limited set of direct and indirect indicators that make it possible to determine the spatial structures of production, consumption, accumulation of fixed capital, etc. with an accuracy sufficient for further use in the information content of interregional intersectoral models. The report examines the problems of spatial allocation of the all-Russian table “input-output” and proposes the author's approach to the partial automation of the procedures necessary to construct a set of regional tables (by federal district). Regionalization was carried out using a static interregional intersectoral model with control of bordering outcomes. The result is a set of consistent regional tables as of 2015 - the sum of eight input-output tables exactly matches the all-Russian table. The constructed static multiregional input-output model (OMIOM) across federal districts is necessary for the next stage of work - the development of a semi-dynamic model used to calculate options for long-term national economic forecasts.