Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal

Abstract

The present study aims to identify regions of extreme precipitation in mainland Portugal and to create a single index of extreme precipitation susceptibility (EPSI). For this purpose, twelve extreme precipitation indices were selected from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices between 1950 and 2003. By considering only six extreme precipitation indices: R×1day, R×5day, SDII, R20, CWD and R95PTOT for the 10-year return period, between 1950 and 2003, the EPSI was developed to both annual data and meteorological season. The regionalization of extreme precipitation in Portugal were determined using a principal component analysis in T-mode. The results, show three spatial regions obtained from PCA. The three regions were analyzed separate. In the annual EPSI, the highest susceptibility areas are the mountainous regions in northern (e.g. Gerês, Peneda, Alvão, Marão and Montesinho) and central Portugal (e.g. Serra da Estrela), as well as in the Algarve (southern Portugal). Conversely, the lower susceptibility classes are in municipalities of the northeast, Alentejo and along the central-western coast. The results of EPSI show similar results in autumn and winter. In spring, however, the high susceptibility class increases in the Lisbon region and in the Sado Basin. In summer, there is an increase in susceptibility in the northeast, while susceptibility is low over much of Alentejo and Algarve, where precipitation is neglectful. This work presents a first attempt to implement this type of index for mainland Portugal. The first results are very promising, showing a consistent representation of the overall spatial distribution of extreme precipitation susceptibility. The combination of this information by municipalities can be of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.