Regional variations in the pollen season of Betula in Burgundy: two models for predicting the start of the pollination

Abstract

Today, 10% of the French people suffer frompollen allergy, a world-wide rising ailmentsince the end of the last century.To prevent the appearance of the symptoms, physicians need precise and early information on the pollination date of the main allergenic species. This wascarried out in Burgundy on birch (Betula), which is responsible for frequent pollinoses inMarch–April. Two of the tested methods were both successful and complementary: the sum oftemperatures and the multiple regression. The first one is very precise but only allows forecastingfive days in advance: this is enough for people suffering from rhinitis or conjunctivitis, who muststart a preventive treatment one or two days before pollination is effective. But for asthmaticpatients, the treatment must one or two weeks in advance; the second method, although alittle less precise, is interesting becauseforecasting can be done at least two weeks inadvance. The results, from 1995 to 1998, were used prospectively in 1999.