Regional Trade Flows and the Leading Position of Regions in the Context of Economic Security

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the research of the region’s competitiveness in the direction of determining its leading positions among other regions with the aim of determining the permissible scope of regional foreign trade flows in terms of economic security of the country. For conducting the analysis of regional export-import flows, regional trade indicators and their thresholds were introduced and considered. The economic-mathematical model of quantitative analysis of risk and discovering the boundary limits of foreign trade flows of the region are worked out. The foreign trade flows of the regional leader – Ivano-Frankivsk region of the Carpathian region – on the basis of two-dimensional normal distribution were designed, and the level of the threshold values of the indicators of foreign trade operations of the region from the point of view of economic risk was determined. The method of building an ellipse of scattering of foreign trade operations of the region – the region of regional foreign trade flows concerning the leading position of the region in the context of economic security for a comparative assessment of the competitiveness and economic security of the regions – is generalized.