Abstract
Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution in disasters plays an important role in disaster risk management. The present study aims to explore the long-term trends in drought and floods over China and estimate the economic losses they cause. A peak-over-threshold approach is used to identify flood peaks, and the relationship between the disasters and climate indices is investigated using Poisson regression. The major results are as follows: (1) the northeastern part of China was severely affected by drought disasters (average damaged area was 6.44 million hectares); (2) the northern part of East China and Central China upstream of the Yangtze River were severely affected by flood disasters (average damaged area was 3.97 million hectares); (3) in the Yangtze River Basin, there are increasing trends in terms of drought and extreme precipitation, especially upstream of the Yangtze River, accompanied by severe disaster losses; and (4) by combining the trends in drought and extreme precipitation days with the spatial distribution of damaged areas, the study indicates that the increasing trend in droughts has shifted gradually from north to south, and the increasing trend in extreme precipitation gradually has shifted from south to north.
Highlights
With global warming, the numbers of extreme precipitation events may increase in many areas [1,2,3]
The present study used the latest and most unique data to study drought and floods and considered the characteristics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) and the Nino 3.4 Index to comprehensively analyze the characteristics of drought and extreme precipitation and the resulting direct economic losses
Mann–Kendall test was used to analyze the trends in standardized precipitation index (SPI) based on monthly precipitation data from 2000 to 2015
Summary
The numbers of extreme precipitation events may increase in many areas [1,2,3]. According to recent statistics [32,33], the economic losses caused by global climate change and related extreme climate events have increased by an average of 10 times in the past 40 years. Climate change has a direct effect on increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts and floods, especially in climate-sensitive and vulnerable areas. Many studies have investigated drought and flood distribution and proposed solutions [36] Most of these studies focused on single disasters [37,38], whereas relatively few considered multi-hazard superposition effects. The present study used the latest and most unique data to study drought and floods and considered the characteristics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) and the Nino 3.4 Index to comprehensively analyze the characteristics of drought and extreme precipitation and the resulting direct economic losses. The research aims to provide better scientific evidence and suggest countermeasures for mitigating and managing the risk of disasters
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