Abstract
Few studies have been carried out to systematically screen regional temperature-sensitive diseases. This study was aimed at systematically and comprehensively screening both high- and low-temperature-sensitive diseases by using mortality data from 17 study sites in China located in temperate and subtropical climate zones. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the association between extreme temperature and mortality to screen temperature-sensitive diseases from 18 kinds of diseases of eight disease systems. The attributable fractions (AFs) of sensitive diseases were calculated to assess the mortality burden attributable to high and low temperatures. A total of 1,380,713 records of all-cause deaths were involved. The results indicate that injuries, nervous, circulatory and respiratory diseases are sensitive to heat, with the attributable fraction accounting for 6.5%, 4.2%, 3.9% and 1.85%, respectively. Respiratory and circulatory diseases are sensitive to cold temperature, with the attributable fraction accounting for 13.3% and 11.8%, respectively. Most of the high- and low-temperature-sensitive diseases seem to have higher relative risk in study sites located in subtropical zones than in temperate zones. However, the attributable fractions for mortality of heat-related injuries were higher in temperate zones. The results of this research provide epidemiological evidence of the relative burden of mortality across two climate zones in China.
Highlights
As global temperatures rise, extreme temperature events are expected to become more intense, more frequent and longer by the end of the twenty-first century [1,2]
We found that non-optimum temperatures increased the mortality burden of the population, and the overall attributable fractions (AFs) in low temperatures (9.40%; 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 2.92–15.83%) was greater than in high temperatures (1.62%; 95% eCI: 0.76–2.43%)
Our findings show that extreme temperature can increase mortality due to multiple diseases, especially those that receive less attention such as nervous system diseases and injuries
Summary
Extreme temperature events are expected to become more intense, more frequent and longer by the end of the twenty-first century [1,2]. Extreme temperature events have a variety of adverse effects upon human health, which have contributed to increased mortality due to various diseases [3,4,5,6], including communicable and non-communicable diseases [7,8]. Many previous multi-city studies have shown that both high and low temperature could increase mortality or morbidity [9,10] and have delayed effects. Showed that both high and low temperatures increased mortality, especially from circulatory and respiratory diseases, and the burden of death varied by climatic zone. Most of the previous studies mainly focused on common diseases, such as cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, respiratory and infectious
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