Abstract
This study employs various regression methods to analyze panel data spanning from 2008 to 2020 across 31 provinces in mainland China. It investigates the influence of technological innovation on industrial upgrading in conjunction with institutional threshold effects. The findings demonstrate that technological innovation significantly contributes to provincial-level industrial upgrading. However, institutional variations introduce thresholds to this relationship: below the first threshold in terms of marketization, technological innovation has a limited impact, while its enhancing effect grows as marketization levels surpass this threshold. A similar pattern emerges with economic openness: below the initial threshold, technological innovation has a minimal influence on industrial upgrading, but as economic openness exceeds the first and second thresholds, its enhancing effect steadily strengthens. This research advances the theory of regional industrial upgrading and provides an institutional foundation for the formulation of policies aimed at its promotion.
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