Regional sulfur dioxide emissions: shall we achieve the goal?

Abstract

Although economic growth is slowing down in the new normal period, air pollution is still a very serious problem in China. The 15% binding goal of sulfur dioxide emission reduction from 2016 to 2020, as stipulated in the 13th Five-Year Plan, has been an ambitious target for the Chinese government. This paper studies the synthetic evaluation and forecasting analysis of sulfur dioxide in China by means of a “grey model” approach combined with the grey relational analysis methods, with the panel data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2015. Grey analysis used to analyse a system with imperfect information, such that a variety of available solutions is reviewed, and the optimal solution is identified. Some encouraging results show that national emissions and a majority of provinces will achieve the target. Over time, the gap of regional differences is rapidly closing. According to the results of grey relational analysis, we find industrial structure and energy consumption have a more significant impact on sulfur dioxide emissions than GDP. Atmospheric treatment investment and environmental protection manpower play a more important role in emissions variation. Based on the findings, we should distinguish different factors and take different measures to protect the environment.