Regional Rain Models with Space- and Time-Correlated Structure

Abstract

Many activities combining the interactions between man and machine are influenced by a third factor of weather. The sensitivity analysis required to explore the complicated effects of weather is important in evaluating situations when man-machine strategies are constructed to arrive at optimal operations. The influence of rain on the harvesting of crops is one such situation. A generalized model has been constructed which will simulate rainfall over regions containing gradient extremes of annual rainfall of 5 inches to 50 inches within the region for any given year. The specific application covered a region 5 miles by 14 miles. We believe that much larger regions can be represented in the same manner. The model will generate daily rain patterns of a spatial and temporal sequence correlated from over a large number of sub areas (fields or farms) within the region. Daily isohyets (equal rainfall contour lines) can be constructed from simulated computer periods of an unlimited time horizon. The model can interact with other models (for example, harvesting and irrigation models) in order to analyze the sensitivity of these models to rainfall incidence, rainfall severity and duration.