Regional Projection of Environmental Consequences of Crises in the Russian Economy

Abstract

—The influence of economic crises in the post-Soviet history on the state of the environment is manifested in different directions and unevenly across regions. During crises, the dependence of pollution indicators on changes in GDP (GRP) and industrial production is higher than during periods of economic growth. During crisis years, there was a decrease in industrial pollution, the volume of atmospheric emissions and polluted wastewater, and, to a lesser extent, water consumption; conversely, vehicle emissions, the volume of toxic waste, the area of disturbed lands, and forest fires do not depend on the change in GRP. Only specific pollution parameters increase during crises. The integral index of anthropogenic impact depends less on the GRP dynamics than some indicators of the load on the natural environment. With a general trend towards a decrease in environmental stress, the group of regions with a critical level of impact is characterized by the greatest stability, while the group of regions with an insignificant level of pressure on the natural environment contracts. Differences in the sanitizing role of crises are due to their duration, depth, and structural features, as well as the mitigating effect of government support measures. The systemic crisis of the 1990s led to a reduction in all indicators, affecting 90% of regions, while the financial crises of 1998 and 2008–2009 affected 70% of regions, and the crises of 2014–2015 and 2020, 30–60%. Despite the fact that for the country as a whole, the dependence of the level of pollution on the level and dynamics of economic development is weakening, with each new crisis, there is an increasing number of regions where the environmental state continues to deteriorate despite the economic downturn.