Regional modeling of the ionosphere using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in Iran

Abstract

In recent years, new techniques and algorithms such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) have been used as alternative statistical tools in modeling and forecasting issues. These methods have been extensively used in the field of geosciences and atmospheric physics. The main purpose of this paper is to combine FIS and ANNs for local modeling of the ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) in Iran. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is developed for TEC modeling. Also, Multi-Layer Perceptron ANN (MLP-ANN) and ANN based on Radial Base Functions (RBF) have been designed for analyzing ANFIS results. Observations of 29 Global Positioning System (GPS) stations from the Iranian Permanent GPS Network (IPGN) have been used in 3 different seasons in 2015 and 2016. These stations are located at geomagnetic low latitudes region. Out of these 29 stations, 24 stations for training and 5 stations for testing and validating were selected. The relative and absolute errors have been used to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed model. Also, the results of this paper are compared with the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI2016). The maximum values of the average relative error for RBF, MLP-ANN, ANFIS and IRI2016 methods are 13.88%, 11.79%, 10.06%, and 18.34%, respectively. Also, the maximum values of the average absolute error for these methods are 2.38, 2.21, 1.5 and 3.36 TECU, respectively. Comparison of diurnal predicted TEC from the ANFIS, RBF, MLP-ANN and IRI2016 models with GPS-TEC revealed that the ANFIS provides more accurate predictions than the other methods in the test area.