Abstract
Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.
Highlights
Climate change is affecting agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods worldwide
We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases are key priorities for future research
We review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America, in order to explore what the expected impacts of climate change will be on the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and smallholder farmers and to identify the key research and policy actions that will be needed to minimize these expected impacts
Summary
Climate change is affecting agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods worldwide. Major shifts in the areas suitable for growing some of the world’s major crops, such as wheat, corn, and coffee, are projected (Challinor et al 2007). Plant and animal ranges are shifting to track suitable conditions as climate changes, resulting in reorganization of plant and animal communities and impacts on ecosystem services (Thomas et al 2004) Where there are both agricultural and ecological changes, smallholder farmers may be impacted, since they depend strongly on ecosystems and their services (Vermeulen et al 2012; Ricketts et al 2004). We review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America, in order to explore what the expected impacts of climate change will be on the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and smallholder farmers and to identify the key research and policy actions that will be needed to minimize these expected impacts.
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