Regional low carbon development pathways for the Yangtze River Delta region in China

Abstract

This study uses the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to analyze the energy demand and carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta region in China from 2020 to 2050 under different energy transition scenarios. The results show that under the baseline scenario, the energy demand and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region will continue to grow; under the condition of fully tapping the energy conservation potential of the Yangtze River Delta region, the energy demand and carbon emissions in this region will achieve slow growth and even be declined in the future. In the short term, improving end-use energy efficiency is the most effective driving force for reducing energy demand in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, while economic transformation is the most effective driving force for reducing energy demand in Anhui province. In the long run, optimizing the structure of the industry is the most effective way to reduce the energy demand for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces, and improving the end-use energy efficiency is the most effective driving force for Shanghai. Vigorously developing non-fossil energy is an effective option for reducing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region in both the short and long term. • This study predicts the energy demand & carbon emissions of the YRD region in China. • Energy demand grows slowly or declines with enhanced end-use efficiency. • The uptake of renewable energy is essential to reducing carbon emissions. • Importing renewable electricity from other provinces is as crucial as vigorously developing local renewable electricity.