Regional Labor Markets in Russia under New Conditions: Problems and Possibilities of Path Dependence Overcoming

Abstract

The subject of the study is the regional labor markets in the Russian Federation. The topic is an analysis of the prospects for the regional labor markets to overcome the Path Dependence problem. Special attention is paid to targeted migration policy as one of the tools to improve the balance and adaptability of regional labor markets. The purpose of the work is to search for evidence of the extremely important role of an effective migration policy in solving the problems of socio-economic development of regions in the conditions of demographic crisis and shortage of labor resources. The research sources are official statistics data, regulatory legal acts of federal and regional authorities, and media materials. Theoretical approaches of institutionalism are used, in particular, the concepts of dependence on previous development, various general scientific and comparative research methods. It is shown that strong shocks of 2020–2022 (the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, external economic sanctions, accelerated digital transformation of the economy and society) could not “push” regional labor markets out of the “institutional trap” (a historically stable state of imbalance, inflexibility, low responsiveness to regulatory measures) on either a positive or negative trajectory. However, such a state hinders the transition of regional economies to innovative development and their adaptation to external challenges. Targeted migration policy could increase the adaptability of regional markets in the conditions of demographic crisis and shortage of labor resources, but its contradictory nature and imperfect legal regulation reduce the effectiveness of this tool. The revealed contradictions require to improve the mechanisms for regulating labor migration, to increase the coordination of actions at the federal and regional levels of government, to strengthen the targeting of state migration policy, and to develop special measures aimed at improving the skills of foreign workers. The results of the study can be used to adjust regulatory measures in the field of labor migration management.