Regional integrated energy system schemes selection based on risk expectation and Mahalanobis-Taguchi system

Abstract

Regional integrated energy system (RIES) provides a platform for coupling utilization of multi-energy and makes various energy demand from client possible. The suitable RIES composition scheme will upgrade energy structure and improve integrated energy utilization efficiency. Based on a RIES construction project in Jiangsu province, this paper proposes a new multi criteria decision-making (MCDM) method for the selection of RIES schemes. Because that subjective evaluation on RIES schemes benefit under criteria has uncertainty and hesitancy, intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number (ITFN) which has the better capability to model ill-known quantities is presented. In consideration of risk attitude and interdependency of criteria, a new decision model with risk coefficients, Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and Choquet integral is proposed. Firstly, the decision matrices given by experts are normalized, and then are transformed to minimum expectation matrices according to different risk coefficients. Secondly, the weights of criteria from different experts are calculated by Mahalanobis-Taguchi system. Mobius transformation coefficients based on interaction degree are to calculate 2-order additive fuzzy measures, and then the comprehensive weights of criteria are obtained by fuzzy measures and Choquet integral. Thirdly, based on group decision consensus requirement, the weights of experts are obtained by the maximum entropy and grey correlation. Fourthly, the minimum expectation matrices are aggregated by the intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy Bonferroni mean operator. Thus, the ranking result according to the comparison rules using the minimum expectation and the maximum expectation is obtained. Finally, an illustrative example is taken in the present study to make the proposed method comprehensible.