Abstract
BackgroundTimely allocation of medical resources for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) requires early detection of regional outbreaks. Internet browsing data may predict case outbreaks in local populations that are yet to be confirmed.ObjectiveWe investigated whether search-engine query patterns can help to predict COVID-19 case rates at the state and metropolitan area levels in the United States.MethodsWe used regional confirmed case data from the New York Times and Google Trends results from 50 states and 166 county-based designated market areas (DMA). We identified search terms whose activity precedes and correlates with confirmed case rates at the national level. We used univariate regression to construct a composite explanatory variable based on best-fitting search queries offset by temporal lags. We measured the raw and z-transformed Pearson correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the explanatory variable with out-of-sample case rate data at the state and DMA levels.ResultsPredictions were highly correlated with confirmed case rates at the state (mean r=0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.81; median RMSE 1.27, IQR 1.48) and DMA levels (mean r=0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.61; median RMSE 4.38, IQR 1.80), using search data available up to 10 days prior to confirmed case rates. They fit case-rate activity in 49 of 50 states and in 103 of 166 DMA at a significance level of .05.ConclusionsIdentifiable patterns in search query activity may help to predict emerging regional outbreaks of COVID-19, although they remain vulnerable to stochastic changes in search intensity.
Highlights
Detection of regional coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks is essential for efficient medical resource allocation, public health messaging, and implementation of infection prevention and control strategies [1]
While several studies have previously attempted to model the COVID-19 pandemic using search query data, such attempts have largely focused on specific regions, like Taiwan and Iran, and a limited number of individually selected search terms [11,12,13,14]
We explored the potential of large-scale, publicly accessible search query data to signal new COVID-19 cases at the state and metropolitan-area levels in the United States
Summary
Detection of regional coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks is essential for efficient medical resource allocation, public health messaging, and implementation of infection prevention and control strategies [1] It is important given the probability of future waves of COVID-19 cases and the difficulty of applying traditional epidemiological forecasting models in areas with low case levels [2,3]. 1 (page number not for citation purposes) Internet browsing data, such as search-engine query results, can provide a real-time indication of symptoms in a population and have been used extensively to predict and model outbreaks like influenza and dengue [4,5,6,7]. Internet browsing data may predict case outbreaks in local populations that are yet to be confirmed
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