REGIONAL INDUSTRY CYCLES AND RESILIENCE OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Abstract

The growth and reduction of cycle times is a characteristic feature of modern economy. Increasingly, cyclical factor is cause of imbalance and violation of global and national economies stability. However, the question of regional industry cycles asynchrony has not been studied. It was previously believed that the regional industry cycle, its stages of growth and decline, is consistent with the national one. The work shows that it is precisely the asynchrony of regional industrial cycles that underlies imbalance and reduces stability of country's economic development. The study presented by the authors expands boundaries of understanding the laws of recessions and upswings in industry cycles, since it reveals the causes and consequences of asynchronism of industry cycles in Russian regions. Terminologically, the regional sectoral cycle should be interpreted as a dynamic process of fluctuations in economic activity within life cycle of industry, characterized by repeatability of successive stages of decline and rise in the region's industry. The authors developed a classification of main parameters of regional industry cycle according to their cyclic properties, including leading, lagging and coinciding indicators of the cycle dynamics. A generalization of scientific and methodological approaches to industry cycles as a risk factor for sustainable and balanced development of regions is presented. The causes and consequences of regional sectoral cycles for the sustainability of regional economy are determined. The measures proposed for regional authorities to prevent the negative consequences of phase shift of sectoral regional cycle will be of practical importance.