Regional flood frequency analysis method for Tasmania, Australia: a case study on the comparison of fixed region and region-of-influence approaches

Abstract

A new regional flood frequency analysis method for Tasmania is developed using data from 53 gauged catchments. The Bayesian generalized least squares regression (BGLSR) approach is used to developing prediction equations for selected flood quantiles using a quantile regression technique (QRT) and the first three moments of the log Pearson Type 3 distribution by means of a parameter regression technique (PRT). Regions are formed in three ways: (a) a fixed-region approach is examined in which all the sites in Tasmania are assumed to form one region; (b) a region of influence (ROI) approach is investigated in which a region is formed around each of the sites based on the criterion of minimum model error variance; and (c) the state of Tasmania is divided into two fixed regions (east Tasmania and west Tasmania) based on their distinct rainfall regimes. Independent testing showed that the BGLSR-ROI approach can deal quite well with the uncertainty in the regional estimation, as shown by the various regression diagnostics. Furthermore, the PRT-ROI approach was found to provide quantile estimates that are generally more accurate and consistent than the QRT. Generally, the ROI approach outperformed the fixed-region approach for Tasmania.