Regional Features of the Population Dynamics in Russia in the Post-Soviet Period

Abstract

The article analyses the regional features of the population dynamics of Russia in the post-Soviet period (1990-2014). Within this period, three time intervals homogeneous by nature of the average Russian dynamics are highlighted (1990-1998, 1999-2006, and 2007-2014). The typology of regional population dynamics is built on the comparison of regional trends with the national average. The rows of the population dynamics in each federal subject are reduced to the combinations of signs “+” (increase) and “-” (decrease) for the three periods; on the basis of these combinations seven types of regional population dynamics are allocated. Geographic features of expansion of each type are analyzed. The results of this typology and its comparison with the author’s earlier typology of regional population dynamics of Russia in the second half of the 20th century (1959-2002), confirmed put forward by the author the hypothesis about the inertia of long-term trends in population dynamics, when the current changes are greatly affected by the sign of the trend of the previous periods (increase or decrease). To identify the contribution to the dynamics of its components the typology of regions by the ratio of natural and mechanical population movement for the most characteristic time intervals having similar trends of dynamics within the period 1990-2014 was conducted. It is established that long-term trends of the population dynamics are the most sustainable for polar types - of constant increase and constant decrease of the population. On the basis of combinations of the dynamics components, zones of permanent increase and permanent decrease of the population within the country are isolated and characterized. It is noted that the influence of economic factors transforms the impact of climate on population dynamics.