Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models.

James Keeble,Young‐Hwa Byun ,Robert J Allen,Jaeyoung Song,Min-Ah Sun ,J Teixeira ,J Williams ,Fiona M O’Connor,Ben Johnson,Guang Zeng,Jane Mulcahy,Steven T Turnock,Jong-Chul Ha ,Jaehee Lee,Hyun-Min Sung ,David S Stevenson,Yeon-Hee Kim ,Sungbo Shim,Sang-Hoon Kwon ,Jisun Kim

doi:10.3390/ijerph18136817

Abstract

This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.

Highlights

Air pollution has emerged as a leading global environmental health risk factor.In particular, long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, referred to as aerosols, is associated with increased rates of chronic bronchitis, reduced lung function, and increased mortality from lung cancer and heart disease [1]
This study explored the impact of fine particulate matter on the air quality in Asia using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) archive
Not enough models provided a direct calculation of PM2.5 concentrations and as such we had to use an approximation that accounts for all aerosol components that were consistent across all CMIP6 models

Summary

Introduction

Air pollution has emerged as a leading global environmental health risk factor. Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, referred to as aerosols, is associated with increased rates of chronic bronchitis, reduced lung function, and increased mortality from lung cancer and heart disease [1]. Reports that 92% of the world’s population resides in areas where the air-quality levels.

Objectives

Methods

Results