Regional evaluation of simulated waves during tropical storm events in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

High waves in the Gulf of Mexico are mainly originated in tropical cyclones and winter storms. The availability of accurate estimations of high wave characteristics is an essential prerequisite for marine spatial planning, coastal zone management, and marine developments over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NeGoM). Moreover, accurate wave simulation relies upon accurate wind field estimations. The wind field data used as input for numerical wave models is typically obtained from global and regional atmospheric model outputs. However, these model outputs may exhibit higher bias relative to observations, especially during fast-traveling tropical weather events. This study evaluates wave sensitivity over the NeGoM to different input wind speed and direction sources using unstructured SWAN model simulations. Five wind data products were employed in this study from ECMWF and NCEP global and regional models to examine the impact of wind forcing on wave simulations. The quality of wind field input data from these sources was evaluated relative to available observations (wind speed and direction) at National Data Buoy Center stations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine optimal wave model configuration. The model's performance is evaluated by comparing its wave simulation results with observational data during selected periods, simultaneously assessing the quality and sufficiency of wind data inputs from various sources. Our study shows that wind fields from FNL and NAM datasets are better correlated with observational data, in terms of vector correlation. Simulations using ECMWF – Real-Time product, combined with Janssen white-capping scheme better estimate wave conditions over the NeGoM compared with the other wind forcings used in this study. Moreover, Janssen white-capping scheme seems to be more realistic for estimations during Hurricane Michael; while for Hurricane Ida, Janssen generation scheme tends to overestimate the wave heights and Komen provides more accurate results.