Abstract
Regional energy planning under uncertainty is an important concept in energy-economy models which makes the planning outcomes closer to reality and enables the decision maker to select the best decision. Reliability of local energy supply and the possibility of long-term access to resources and emissions reduction is an essential step. In this study, an urban energy demand which is supplied by electricity network is investigated with an optimal combination of alternative energy resources such as solar, wind and natural gas during the next 10 years. The optimal combination of fossil energy as well as renewable energies are determined by goal stochastic programming model. Isfahan province in Iran has been selected as a case study. Empirical results indicate that due to the importance of investment and operation costs, the dominant share of energy supply will belong to natural gas, while the shares of solar and wind energies remain constant in the next decade. In sum, the share of solar and wind energies increases by 8% in 10 years and therefore, it is not necessary to increase electricity supply by the network in order to meet annual increasing demand. CO2 and NOx emissions will decrease significantly.Keywords: Stochastic programming, Goal programming, Local energy planning, Iran.JEL Classifications: Q43, Q47DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7870
Highlights
Population growth and urban expansion, as well as increasing energy prices have exacerbated power shortage and changing climatic conditions within municipal energy supply systems
This paper indicates an optimizationbased method to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment
In a goal programming model, the original objective functions are taken to the constraints and a new objective function written in terms of under- and over-achievement of the considered objectives is minimized
Summary
Population growth and urban expansion, as well as increasing energy prices have exacerbated power shortage and changing climatic conditions within municipal energy supply systems. These issues are highly interrelated, among each other and with a variety of social, economic, political, environmental and technical factors (Frei et al, 2003). Nowadays power systems, regulated or deregulated, are exposed to ever more sources of uncertainty, such as fuel prices, demand fluctuations, as well as transmission constraints. This uncertainty and the increasing demand for power raise new challenges for utility planners, whose goal is to provide reliable power to consumers at the lowest possible cost. This uncertainty and the increasing demand for power raise new challenges for utility planners, whose goal is to provide reliable power to consumers at the lowest possible cost. (Manickavasagam et al, 2015)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
