Abstract
To investigate the future trends of energy demand in Japan accurately, it is necessary to clarify the factors that determine the fluctuations in energy demands across regions. Specifically, it is necessary to clarify whether the energy demand fluctuations across regions arise from compositional factors, that is, differences in energy users, or from regionally unique factors. This study analyzes the determinants of energy demand change to clarify the factors that have affected the fluctuations in regional energy demands in Japan, using dynamic shift-share analysis. The results show that the energy demand fluctuations can be explained by compositional effects and regional effects. With regard to the compositional effects, the energy demand growth increased most remarkably in the regions that specialize in residential and commercial activities. However, energy demand did not increase in the regions that specialize in manufacturing activities. With respect to the regional effects, there were constraints on energy demand in big-city regions because of the improved energy intensity achieved through energy conservation. The results imply that having a mixture of industry and civil sector activities in a region potentially flattens out the fluctuations in energy demand changes. This finding suggests that when moderating the change of regional energy demand, it is important to diversify the industrial structure in each region.
Highlights
To investigate the future trends of energy demand in Japan accurately, it is necessary to clarify the factors that determine the fluctuations in energy demands across regions
The national effect was 0.28 %, and the remaining effects were the compositional and regional effects
In Tohoku and Okinawa, both the compositional and the regional effects led the increase in energy demand
Summary
To investigate the future trends of energy demand in Japan accurately, it is necessary to clarify the factors that determine the fluctuations in energy demands across regions. It is necessary to clarify whether the energy demand fluctuations across regions arise from compositional factors, that is, differences in energy users, or from regionally unique factors. To create an aspiring political instrument as a master plan, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the present structure of energy demands in Japan. The present study provides this analysis, in terms of the regional and the sectoral aspects relevant to the energy demand in Japan during 1990– 2011. Japan’s energy demands grew throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Regional differences in the energy demand increases are apparent in that period; e.g., Japan’s provincial energy demand increases differed from those in its big-city
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