Abstract
Light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAPs) emissions, when compared to gasoline vehicles. However, research has found that while today’s BEVs typically reduce GHGs, they can increase certain CAPs, though with significant regional variability based on the electric grid mix. In addition, the environmental performance of electric and gasoline vehicles is not static, as key factors driving emissions have undergone significant changes recently and are expected to continue to evolve. In this study, we perform a cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis using state-level generation mix and vehicle operation emission data. We generated state-level emission factors using a projection from 2020 to 2050 for three light-duty vehicle types. We found that BEVs currently provide GHG benefits in nearly every state, with the median state’s benefit being between approximately 50% to 60% lower than gasoline counterparts. However, gasoline vehicles currently have lower total NOx, urban NOx, total PM2.5, and urban PM2.5 in 33%; 15%; 70%; and 10% of states, respectively. BEV emissions will decrease in 2050 due to a cleaner grid, but the relative benefits when compared to gasoline vehicles do not change significantly, as gasoline vehicles are also improving over this time.
Highlights
In 2019, there were 264 million light-duty vehicles (LDVs), with 111 million classified as cars and 153 million as light trucks, in the United States [1]. These vehicles had a significant environmental impact; LDVs accounted for 58% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the U.S transportation sector and for 17% of the U.S total, in 2019 [2]. Their contributions to criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions are significant, as they were responsible for 33% of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and 21% of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from transportation, which accounted for 20% of total NOx and 4% of PM2.5 from all anthropogenic sources, in 2017 [3]
For model year (MY) 2020, the vehicle-cycle accounted for approximately 30% of the GHGs for each of the BEV300 vehicle types and 8% for each of the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV)
As the grid incorporates more renewables in our scenario, from 2020 to 2050, absolute BEV300 GHG emission rates decrease by 40%, but due to the improvements for ICEVs the relative benefits do not change significantly
Summary
In 2019, there were 264 million light-duty vehicles (LDVs), with 111 million classified as cars and 153 million as light trucks, in the United States [1]. These vehicles had a significant environmental impact; LDVs accounted for 58% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the U.S transportation sector and for 17% of the U.S total, in 2019 [2]. Research has found that while today’s BEVs typically reduce GHGs, they can increase certain CAPs, though with significant regional variability due to the electrical grid mix [4,5,6,7,8,9]
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