Regional electrical energy substitution potential prediction based on time series and improved back propagation neural network

Abstract

A combined time-series-based regression forecasting and GRA-IPSO-BP structure is proposed to forecast the electricity replacement forecasts using a time series model based on the triple exponential smoothing forecasting method. The forecast results are corrected using the GRA-IPSO-BP structure. The results of the algorithm show that using a combination of time series and GRA-IPSO-BP structure can significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of electricity replacement compared to single-method forecasting.