Regional earthquake-induced landslide assessments for use in seismic risk analyses of distributed gas infrastructure systems

Abstract

Earthquake-induced landslides are associated with significant risks to human lives and infrastructure. Spatially distributed infrastructure systems, such as pipelines, power lines, and transportation networks, are at particular risk to seismic landslides due to their large spatial extent. To conduct a comprehensive seismic landslide risk assessment for these systems, there is the need to evaluate the seismic landslide characteristics (i.e., location, size, displacement, direction) on a broad, regional scale. This paper presents a framework for seismic landslide analysis that provides this information for subsequent risk assessments. The approach computes seismic landslide displacements using a sliding block approach while accounting for the uncertainties in the input variables and displacement models using a logic tree. The computed displacements are then aggregated based on geomorphic landforms to define landslide zones. For each landslide zone, the statistical distributions of landslide features, such as landslide size, displacement level, and direction of movement, are defined. These attributes are presented in a format that can be integrated with fragility models for distributed infrastructure systems to quantify risk on a regional scale. The application of the approach is demonstrated through assessments for gas pipeline networks across the state of California in the United States.