Regional earth system modelling framework for CORDEX-SA: an integrated model assessment for Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Abstract

An effort is made to implement a regional earth system model (RESM); ROM, over CORDEX-South Asia (SA). The added value of RESM is assessed for mean precipitation, its variability (intraseasonal to interannual), extremes, and associated processes. In this regard, ROM’s fields are compared with the respective fields of its standalone version (REMO), the models belonging coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and regional climate models of CORDEX-CORE simulations. RESM shows substantial improvement for most of the Indian monsoon’s aspects; however, the magnitude of the value addition varies spatiotemporally and also with different aspects.. The improved representation of intraseasonal variability (active-break spell’s duration and intensity) and Interannual variability attributed to improved mean seasonal precipitation. Additionally, correct representation of sea surface temperature, Indian Ocean Dipole, and its underlying dynamics also contribute to improving the mean precipitation. The notable improvement is seen especially over the south-eastern regions of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and South-Central India, where increasing (decreasing) low-pressure systems over Central India (BoB) are noticed as a consequence of air-sea coupling, leading to enhanced (reduced) precipitation over Central India (BoB), reducing dry (wet) bias found in REMO and the other models. Despite substantial improvements, RESM has a systematic wet bias in the mean precipitation associated with a warm bias over the western coast of the Arabian Sea. An overestimation of very high extreme precipitation due to the enhanced contribution of low-pressure systems indicates the model’s limitations, suggesting the need for further tuning of the RESM.